Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
